Geopolitics
    Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2023?
    50%chance
    Dec 31, 2023
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    Yes, $1
    No, $1
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    About
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from June 12, 2023 through December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
    Contract0xfB...E673
    Resolver0x27...e4cf
    What people are saying
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    That will require the removal of Putin from office and he will not go willingly. Too bad we have rules against doing exactly what needs to be done.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    That will require the removal of Putin from office and he will not go willingly. Too bad we have rules against doing exactly what needs to be done.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    The old-fashioned way: those who would oppose his power end up dead or in jail.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    The constitution being the chief reason amongst other. I most countries you cannot be re-elected into a position of power after 2 terms. In Russia however there's a difference. You can be president for 2 terms, then you can be premier minister for 2 term (you could and would do only 1 term realistically, since you want to be president rather than premier), then again president for 2 terms, then premier minister for 2 term, and so on. Pretty much an infinite cycle. Provided Putin will be elected into each office every time he's running.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    Consolidation of Power Putin essentially heads the ruling party, United Russia, and can pass what he likes through the Duma (The legislator) Election Fraud Russia has had huge election fraud for years. Everyone knows, they just go along. Russian Culture (Cult of Personality) Russia has a long cultural history with huge personalities taking control. War in Chechnya Easier for Putin's second term elections due to trouble in the caucuses. Statistically easier for war presidents to get reelected. Dissident Repression Putin puts anyone who disagrees with him away. He's been accused of killing journalists. Russian Constitution Presidents (Before 2008) can't serve more than two consecutive 4 year terms. In 2008 Putin stepped down and let Dimitri Medvedev become President while Putin was PM. Medvedev changed the term to 6 years, starting with the next President. United Russia voted Putin to run for President on the United Russia ticket in 2012.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    Have you read his Wiki? It lays it out pretty well. Russia's term limits are only for consecutive terms. So he ruled for 8 years, took a break, and now is back as President. During the time he wasn't President he was named Prime Minister and was the leader of the only real political party in the country and was basically a shadow President.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:58 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    Russian term limits only limit consecutive terms. Putin served 2 terms as President, then 1 term as Prime Minister, and now is President again.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:57 AM
    Outcome
    Yes, $1
    No, $1
    Amount
    Average price$1
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