Elections
    Taiwan Presidential Election: Who will win?
    50%chance
    Dec 12, 2023
    0 bet
    Lai Ching-te (賴清德)
    $0 bet
    Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜)
    $0 bet
    Ko Wen-je (柯文哲)
    $0 bet
    Lai Ching-te (賴清德)
    Outcome
    Yes, $1
    No, $1
    Amount
    Average price$1
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    About
    2023
    Contract0xb9...0709
    Resolver0xc4...baa5
    What people are saying
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    Whoever votes for a combined ticket for Ko and Hou is a dipshit. Yeah, vote for the two who cannot get along until they're desperate less than 11 days before they have to submit their election ticket. Let them decide on the most important factors for the next four years. They're both working with Ma, who said that unification between Taiwan and China must happen. How fucking dumb do you have to be to vote for him unless you're a traitor who should be dropped in the Strait and then swim to China.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    It's a close race now, I think anything except a Terry Gou win can happen

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    It's a close race now, I think anything except a Terry Gou win can happen

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    I don't think liberal/conservative is a good lens to look at Taiwanese politics. The main parties agree on a lot of domestic and social issues for the most part

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    It's nothing to do with liberal attitudes and everything to do with the ridiculous system forcing voters to return to their registered home to vote. Lots of young people have moved to other parts of the country for work and are unable to get time off work. Older people typically live at home, thus unfairly skewing elections in their favour. Taiwan seriously needs to either allow people to vote wherever they currently reside (ID cards should make this insanely easy), or make election day a national holiday.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    I worry about the same thing. The DPP's attitude was really too relaxed in the last election. They should have campaigned harder. The thing about older voters -- the kind of voters the KMT relies on -- IS THAT THEY SHOW UP TO VOTE. Voters with more liberal attitudes often fail to show up when it counts.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:08 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    If Ko plays second fiddle, the TPP is toast. It won't survive as a party.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:07 AM
    0x93a528...732f187b holds
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    Getting worried these days. Lai had been consistently 10-17% ahead for most of the year, but now some polls show him dipping into the single digit lead. One poll in fact showed him only 4% ahead of Ko.

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    Dec 13, 2023, 1:07 AM
    Lai Ching-te (賴清德)
    Outcome
    Yes, $1
    No, $1
    Amount
    Average price$1
    Shares0