Depends on what happens more. Democrats passing bad policy or Republicans Stabbing their voters in the back.

If the incumbents run, yes. It's hard to beat incumbents, and the ones in these red states are particularly strong. Manchin, Brown, Tester, no Democrats are better equipped to win their states than them.

If the house Republicans go full Tea Party, democrats have a better chance. If Trump runs as a third party, democrats stand a better chance. By historical trends, the republicans should have at least a 10 to 20 seat majority in the house now. Younger people might vote more and more old people might die. We are treading new grounds here

It's a long shot. The way I see it there are things that could work for the democrats. Things that could tip it in the democrats favor House disfunction: the inmates are running the asylum now and they will provide lots of amo for 2024 Presidential year: more people come out in press years and turnout is usually good for the dems Biden: could go either way, his approval rating is going up right now. If it stays up he could be a boost to the dems in the general. Propganda issues: the war in Ukraine is dragging Putin down and Fox is getting sued for 1.6 billion by dominion. Both of those are going to be massive issues for the propaganda machine that powers the GOP. Abortion: in my opinion all of these come secondary to the issue that killed the red wave. The anger at the GOP may have calmed down a bit since roe got overturned 6 months ago. That won't last forever, at some point a cute white girl is going to die a painful and preventable death and all fingers will be pointed at the GOP. The closer that happens to an election the worse it will be for the party. The territory they need to defend is still going to be hard. Like I said above it's a long shot but it's not impossible.

I agree with this assessment. Maybe it’s because I’m tired of doom and gloom headlines (plus Dems proved that we can beat the typical narratives) but at the very least we’ll lose Joe Manchin’s seat but only if he doesn’t run again.

I doubt it just off the map but I don't think it'll be as big a bloodbath as people seem to automatically assume. No matter how much many seem to have a desire and hope Republicans "moderate" or come to the middle, the truth is Republicans are doing a very poor job of making themselves electorable to the median public (i.e. going overboard on social conservative stances that no one but their fringe, very religious base wants) and it'll catch up to them fully at some point. I think Republicans will likely win control of the Senate, but it'll be 51-49 or at most 52-48 margin. Like they'll for sure win West Virginia and likely at least one of Ohio and Montana, but I would not rule out Brown and/or Tester holding on. Both are incredibly strong incumbents in red states, and Biden outperforming typical trends in Ohio to only lose by 6 or so would be enough for Brown to hold on. Ditto for Tester with differing margins. Pennsylvania (Casey), Wisconsin (Baldwin), Michigan (Stabenow but she is retiring though Dems have a strong bench there), Minnesota (Klobuchar), Virginia (Kaine) I can't see Republicans winning. Arizona (Sinema but Gallego will challenge for Democrats) Republicans can flip in a perfect world, but people don't realize how bat-shit the Arizona Republicans have become and how many right-leaning moderates have turned Democrats there. They are more likely to nominate a unpalatable candidate like a Kari Lake over a Doug Ducey, and if they do that, they'll lose. Meanwhile, I think we're looking ripe for Democrats to win control of the House again and take a bigger majority than what they had post-2020. Nothing the Republicans in the House are doing, from their sham of a leadership election to openly trashing moderating on social stances like on abortion will help them in House races come 2024. They've also gerrymandered themselves to the fullest.

Don’t forget if the GOP keeps trying to ban abortion and it was literally the first thing they did as soon as Kevin became speaker

Too early to tell really. Everyone thought the Republicans would have a red wave last year but they nearly came close to having a red flop. All I know is that it’s gonna be a tough battle for Democrats, especially if Republicans run better candidates than they did in the most recent elections.

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